Neymar offers sporting elegance and marketing potential

European football has just experienced a record transfer window. Clubs on the old continent spent an astronomical sum – almost six billion euros – during the summer on new signings. Compared to last year, this is a 41 percent increase. We spoke with long-time players’ agent and sports law expert Jozef Tokos about the economic and legal aspects of transfers and what the future of the transfer market might look like.

We witnessed an enormous level of activity by clubs in the football market, resulting in several transfers for truly astronomical amounts. How do you assess the summer transfer window?

“We have just had another record-breaking summer. Just like last year – which was also a record. Last year the symbolic hundred million barrier fell with Pogba’s transfer to Manchester United and we all said: wow, let’s see if someone will break that milestone quickly. Because Pogba, with all due respect to his qualities, is not even in the top five best players in the world. Already last year I predicted that it would happen soon – and it did. Then came Neymar’s transfer to Paris with a release clause of 222 million euros. His move triggered another wave in the market, proving that demand far exceeds supply. Who would have thought just half a year ago that a 20-year-old Dembélé would become the second most expensive player in the world?”

Paris paid an astronomical amount for Neymar. Is the Brazilian worth that kind of money?

“First of all, it has to be said that such a sum is an excess. Let’s start with the positives. His shirts sell very quickly and well, interest in the club and Ligue 1 has risen. Clubs that host PSG are selling out their stadiums. It’s clear Neymar is a huge attraction. The profitability of his signing can’t yet be quantified. On the sporting side, his contribution is undeniable, nobody doubts he’s a top-class footballer. If he helps win the title or PSG manage to win the Champions League, the club’s income from TV rights and shirt sales will grow. The negative could be a possible injury to such an expensive signing. Time will tell.”

Neymar’s transfer triggered a series of other mega-deals. Dembélé was playing with amateurs just two years ago, and now Barcelona has bought him for 140 million euros. Is this a similar excess to Neymar’s case?

“I think it’s even greater. Let other experts judge, but in terms of quality, Dembélé can’t be compared to Neymar – not even to Neymar at the same age. Of course, he has qualities, but they don’t reach the Brazilian’s level. If we compare the figures – 140 for Dembélé versus 222 for Neymar – yes, it’s an even bigger excess.”

Milan Skriniar became the most expensive Slovak player during the summer, with Inter Milan paying Sampdoria 23 million for him. Compared to the sums above, do you think it was a good deal for Inter?

“It’s all about supply and demand for a given player at a given time. Skriniar moved to Inter at the beginning of July, before Neymar, Dembélé, and Mbappé had changed clubs. It’s the same as when Manchester United’s coach José Mourinho says he’s glad he bought Lukaku and Matić early, because at the end of the window he would have had to pay 80 or 100 million more. So we can cautiously say that if Skriniar had transferred at the end of the window, after Neymar and his recent performances for the national team, theoretically he might have cost more. This effect is similar for other players as well.”

All clubs are subject to the financial fair play (FFP) rules, which basically say that they should only spend as much money as they earn. Do you think Paris will meet UEFA’s strict requirements in this regard?

“Many economists would expect that Paris Saint-Germain broke the financial fair play rules with these purchases. However, I assume PSG’s executives know the regulations well. UEFA introduced these rules for one reason – to prevent clubs from getting into debt. But in PSG’s case, there’s a warning sign. The club was sanctioned three years ago for breaking these same rules and had to pay a fine of several tens of millions of euros. The number one task for the regulator – UEFA in this case – is to publish the results of its investigation into PSG’s signings of Neymar and Mbappé. There are also other ways to limit mega-expensive transfers. One would be to introduce a uniform salary cap for all clubs. But this would need careful and thorough analysis, because there’s no tradition of such a thing in European football. Still, I think measures to stop the uncontrollable rise in transfer fees and to adjust the economic behaviour of big clubs are needed in some form.”

What trend do you expect in future football transfers?

“The winter transfer window is usually calmer, with players mainly moving to Asia. Much will depend on how quickly UEFA and top league regulators react. If the aim is to maintain fair competition while taking into account the specifics of sport, and the rules are respected, I don’t expect further increases in transfer fees.”

Do you see any super-talent in world football who could surpass the fee paid for Neymar?

“No, I don’t. Neymar is a combination of sporting elegance and marketing potential. Behind Ronaldo and Messi, he is probably the third-best footballer in the world and he’s at the ideal age. Also, only available players can be transferred. After Neymar’s move, the big Spanish clubs raised release clauses in player contracts to 500 or even 700 million euros. For Ronaldo, it’s a full billion. The best players are now under long-term contracts, and the vast majority of clubs won’t be able to afford such release clauses.”