Football has taken a hard hit. The expert revealed what the coronavirus could cause in Slovakia as well

A correction may occur in the football world, and the negative scenario during the pandemic could have a heavy impact on the economy of clubs and everyone involved in the sport. Football expert Jozef Tokos said this in an interview for ŠPORT.sk.

The world of football and its finances were reaching such dimensions that it hardly seemed possible to go any higher. Records were being broken every transfer window, and the prices of even “ordinary” footballers were rising proportionally, not to mention individual salaries. Football and sport in general are now among the last things the world is concerned about. The planet is fighting a dangerous pandemic caused by the COVID-19 virus. Competitions have been suspended, the final tournament of Euro 2020 has been postponed by a year, stadiums are empty, and naturally, the flow of money has stopped or slowed down. Some clubs started feeling the pinch as early as the second week after the competitions were halted, and the problems will gradually grow. This is especially true for clubs that were already economically on the edge. Increasingly frequent reports are emerging about clubs being forced to reduce player salaries. In some cases, contracts were even radically terminated.

Coronavirus has already dealt a blow to football and its business. Jozef Tokos spoke to ŠPORT.sk about what the global pandemic could mean for world football, including Slovakia.

“Even the transfer fee for Neymar and other top players was, in my opinion, already at its peak. That doesn’t apply just to him but to everything that followed. These massive transfers proportionally pushed up the prices of players we might not have even known before. These were amounts from 10 up to over 30 million. This so-called ‘spiral’ kept climbing, and now a correction will certainly come,” said Jozef Tokos, a players' agent, sports manager, analyst, and sports lawyer working on cases around the world.

The crisis caused by the coronavirus has already started to affect the economy in football. What do you think the pandemic might cause in this sport?

“It’s still too early for a prognosis because the situation could be completely different in two or three weeks. It changes quickly. Two weeks ago, the possibility of postponing Euro 2020 was unheard of. Key leagues have announced suspensions. Football has stopped everywhere. We are facing an unknown, and I don't want to make any economic predictions because I can't say whether the scenario will be optimistic or pessimistic.

The facts are clear—for example, the financial markets are visibly affected, European indexes are falling, and the same trend has been recorded on the New York Stock Exchange. We have an economic situation where we cannot predict what will happen in two or three weeks.

Despite that, we can already say it will have a significant impact on professional football. But it’s uncertain how it will look globally and how it will look here, because the situation is different in that regard. Slovak clubs are significantly underfunded in two key areas of the budget - TV rights and ticket revenue.

The third revenue stream is merchandising and player sales, which is what has kept Slovak clubs afloat recently. That’s an item that will be significantly missed in Slovak football, and we can already say that in the upcoming transfer window, transfer fees will not be as significant. There also won’t be as many transfers overall.”

What about global mega-transfers?

“It’s likely that during the pandemic, clubs will seriously reconsider these things. Transfer fees will certainly be re-evaluated, and this will impact the Slovak market too. We are a country that sells players in the football environment, not buys them. It will therefore affect top-division Slovak clubs and second-division clubs, which will likely have much lower budgets.

In some cases, there may be serious problems with budget fulfillment, especially where the source of funding comes from businessmen whose companies might face issues due to the pandemic. I don't want to say it will go as far as clubs collapsing. We must first wait to see how the situation evolves. Globally, the pandemic may mainly affect clubs with tight budgets, high expenditures, and many employees. These clubs could suffer significantly. Healthy clubs, the big ones, won’t be affected as extremely. It all depends on the decisions clubs made during times of ‘abundance’ when the economy was thriving. As I said, everything depends on how the situation develops.”

What might this mean for Slovak clubs that were already balancing on the financial edge before the pandemic? There are clubs that couldn’t pay players for months and second-division teams barely surviving. What could this crisis mean for them?

“It could cause significant problems. However, it’s important to note that clubs must respect legal limits. The league suspension is temporary, and there’s no legal reason for clubs to terminate contracts with players. That is the position of the Union of Football Professionals (UFP), and the Slovak Football Association (SFZ) agrees. Contracts can’t be terminated, nor can wages be cut, unless both parties agree. At the moment, you can’t just touch contracts.

However, there's the case of second-division Bardejov, which told players they were all dismissed. That was an unprecedented move. UFP President Ján Mucha spoke with the club management and also notified the SFZ, the Union of Leagues, and the 2nd League Association to deal with the situation so this case doesn’t become a precedent. Such a shortcut, which in my opinion is illegal and against SFZ regulations, is completely inappropriate.

In any case, we’ll see how the situation develops. We expect that clubs themselves will come forward with proposals to ease the burden on players. In Scotland, for example, Hearts players proposed wage cuts to help the club. We need to wait and see what happens.

Still, there are legal boundaries. This affects football, but similar problems are facing thousands of employers and their employees across all other sectors. We’ll see what happens with the league, whether it finishes or not, but we still don’t have an answer to that, even though dates have been shifted again for now.”

What would happen if the negative scenario comes true and restrictions last until June or July? Some speculation has already emerged…

“That’s really just speculation. But if the current restrictions last through April, May, and even June, football wouldn’t be played. Then the authorities would have to make a decision to end the season. That’s the black scenario, which football fans can’t imagine. The season wouldn’t be completed and decisions would be made at the ‘green table.’

In hockey, the decision has already been made, and I believe football will get the chance to finish. We must wait for the coming weeks, but such a scenario would certainly have a very negative impact on club finances and football in general—on sponsors, club owners, players, and everyone involved in the game.”

If we look beyond Slovakia, what could this crisis do to the football market and transfer fees? Prices were already astronomical, along with player salaries. Could this pandemic bring some sanity back to football?

“That’s a very good thought and an interesting question. I’m a big supporter of the free market in professional sports. I believe the market will sort this out too. Even the transfer fee for Neymar or other top players was, in my opinion, already at its peak. Not just for him, but everything that followed. These huge transfers drove up prices for players who weren’t even known before. Fees went from 10 to over 30 million. That spiral kept rising, and now a correction is certainly coming. How big it will be, we’ll see later. For now, it’s an unknown. But it’s important to distinguish between short-term and long-term impacts. Short-term includes current club and league economics, the summer transfer window, and perhaps the next six months to a year. Long-term is something else. But football as entertainment and the most popular sport will be here for hundreds of years to come…”

We asked about sanity also because now we’re seeing many interviews with players who say they’re only now realizing the value of ordinary things and small joys…

“Whether a footballer earns 400,000 or 200,000 a week, even if they lose half their pay, their lifestyle won’t really change. But if you take a Slovak second-league player earning just above minimum wage, or others who barely survive on their football salary—that’s a huge difference.

The world’s top football stars may have a moment of reflection and realize they’ve lived like kings, and they know they don’t even have to agree to wage cuts. But the pandemic will affect them much less than the vast majority of professional players—whether here or in Western Europe, players earning just a bit more than the national average. For those players, the impact will be much greater.”

Finally, what’s your forecast? Are you an optimist, realist, or pessimist?

“I try to be optimistic. There are various scenarios, but I firmly believe Slovakia can manage this in a way that avoids an extreme impact on the overall economy. But most important are people’s lives. If we can avoid deaths and reduce infection numbers, that would be a great success and everything else becomes secondary in terms of life priorities. As for football, I’m optimistic there too. Even though the news from around the world isn’t encouraging, I still believe professional and amateur football will manage to overcome this over the next half year to a year.”