After the COVID years, a rebound: Transfer market on the rise

The transfer market for top football players was thriving. Between 2012 and 2019, it more than tripled in size. Then came the global pandemic.

According to data from the International Centre for Sports Studies (CIES), clubs in the top five European leagues (England, Germany, Spain, Italy, France) spent 1.9 billion euros on new signings ten years ago, and a record 6.6 billion in 2019. There was no sign that spending on players would slow down in the coming years. But just like it hit every other sector, COVID-19 also struck the transfer market hard. Last year, it shrank to 3.8 billion euros—almost half the pre-pandemic figure. The summer window officially opens on July 1, but the first announced transfers already show that business in football is picking up again. Norwegian striker Erling Haaland moved to Manchester City for 60 million euros, Uruguayan Darwin Nunez to Liverpool for 75, and French midfielder Aurelien Tchouameni to Real Madrid for 80 million.

“With fans returning to stadiums and no cuts to sponsorship income, it’s reasonable to expect that spending on player transfers will increase significantly in 2022,” said sports analyst and football agent Jozef Tokos. However, he added that it’s unlikely transfer figures will return to pre-crisis levels just yet.

For nearly two decades, the biggest money in football has been circulating in the English Premier League. It’s therefore no surprise that the club expected to spend the most this summer is in that very league.

“It looks like that club will be Manchester United. They’ve got a new manager and, after falling short of their goals last season, major changes in the squad are expected,” Tokos explained. The British media are calling it a football revolution. United have parted ways with 11 players, including stars like Paul Pogba, Nemanja Matic, and Juan Mata. That gives the club financial room in their wage budget to sign some truly high-profile names.

Since former Ajax coach Erik ten Hag has taken over the reins at United, speculation is focused on his former players.

“They haven’t announced a big name yet, but they’re trying to bring in Frenkie de Jong from Barcelona or Matthijs de Ligt from Juventus. The club is ready to spend big,” Tokos said. That Dutch duo alone could cost around 150 million euros, and United are also eyeing English players like Declan Rice from West Ham and Mason Mount from Chelsea.

“When English players move between rival Premier League clubs, the fees are massive. There are many past examples,” said Tokos. Last year, Manchester City paid 117 million euros for Jack Grealish from Aston Villa, and United spent 87 million in 2019 on defender Harry Maguire.

The overall total for transfers this year could be significantly boosted by the captain of Slovakia’s national team, Milan Skriniar. One of Europe’s top-rated defenders over the last three seasons, Skriniar has attracted interest from Tottenham, Chelsea, and especially Paris St. Germain. Are the dozens of reports about a potential move just rumors, or is there truth to them?

“I highly doubt it’s just speculation. Skriniar is world-class, and Inter is one of the richest clubs in Europe. There are only a few teams left that can afford him and where he could actually improve his position,” Tokos noted.

French media recently reported that PSG offered 40 million euros for the Slovak defender—an offer Inter immediately rejected. Last season’s Serie A runners-up value Skriniar at around 65 to 70 million euros. Tottenham’s interest is mostly tied to coach Antonio Conte, who led Skriniar at Inter between 2019 and 2021 and won the league title with him. A move to Chelsea seems the least likely, as the London club is targeting several top-tier defenders to replace Antonio Rudiger, who left on a free transfer to Real Madrid, and Andreas Christensen, who is hoping to sign with Barcelona.

A sleeping giant—this best describes Newcastle United’s activity in the transfer market so far. The club, where Slovak goalkeeper Martin Dubravka plays, was bought last October by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund. With assets of 376 billion euros, the new owner became the wealthiest sports club owner in the world. Massive signings were expected already in the winter window, but in the end, Newcastle spent “only” around 132 million euros on five players.

“They strengthened very cleverly and strategically. The fact that they avoided relegation from the Premier League so comfortably proves it,” Tokos remarked. “Today, it’s no longer possible to spend huge sums overnight like Roman Abramovich did when he took over Chelsea in 2003.”

The reason is UEFA’s Financial Fair Play rules, which apply—with minor variations—across European competitions. Their main goal is to ensure that clubs only spend what they are capable of earning.