Saudi petrodollars are reshaping the entire transfer ecosystem

Sports analyst Jozef Tokos takes a closer look at Saudi Arabia’s ambitious and aggressive activity in the football transfer market. Can this oil-rich powerhouse become a true global player on the pitch as well?

The Saudi Arabian club Al Hilal has reportedly offered French striker Kylian Mbappé a monstrous annual salary of €700 million and his current club, Paris Saint-Germain, a transfer fee of €300 million.

What kind of message does that send to the football world?

These figures are absolute madness, and we have to look beyond football logic to understand them. No methodology within the sport would justify these numbers. This kind of record-breaking transfer would be entirely unprecedented.

Saudi Arabia is not only spending enormous amounts on salaries but increasingly on transfer fees as well. In total, the five most expensive signings so far have cost Saudi clubs over €172 million. Could the Saudi Pro League become one of the world’s most respected competitions in the future?

The rapid and aggressive rise of Saudi Arabia in the global football scene is not something we're used to in Europe. At this point, we still don’t know if this will be a long-term trend — time is needed for proper analysis. But suddenly, there’s a strong new player influencing high-level activity, including club strategies and player signings. What seemed unthinkable just a few years ago is now a reality.

Is the Saudi model sustainable in the long run?

The Saudis and their backers will obviously claim that their strategy is long-term and permanent. But it’s clear that this model isn’t sustainable based on the classic “three-legged stool” of revenue: marketing, merchandise, and ticket sales — or even broadcasting rights. Their intervention in the market is undeniable. The real question is how long the sheikhs’ appetite will last. In comparison, the system being built in Major League Soccer in the U.S. seems to be built on more solid foundations.

European clubs and officials often complain that Saudi Arabia’s influence is distorting the market and destroying the transfer ecosystem. In many cases, clubs now have to significantly overpay to sign players because they’re competing directly with offers from the Middle East.

I agree with that assessment. The market has already been shaken, and more shocks are likely. We’ll see the final numbers once this transfer window ends — or in the winter. Other industries have experienced similar unexpected shifts or disruptions, and for now, it doesn’t look like Saudi Arabia’s "money taps" will be shutting off anytime soon. Time will tell how player transfers evolve. But today, it’s clear that Saudi Arabia is no longer just attracting aging stars past their prime — they’re signing players in their prime, often national team players. Just look at the list of names who joined over the summer, and that list is sure to grow in the coming weeks.

Is there a risk that this massive influx of petrodollars will cause a price bubble in European club football?

I don’t think so. There were several cases in the past where countries tried to make big investments into football, but we can’t talk about a bubble in those situations either.

Elite Saudi club Al Hilal — currently very interested in signing Mbappé — also reportedly made a very attractive offer to the phenomenal Lionel Messi not long ago. We've already discussed the "Saudi threat" to European clubs’ transfer strategies. What kind of players might move to Saudi Arabia in the coming weeks?

It’s certainly an attractive alternative for highly sought-after second-tier internationals. From a sporting perspective, the Saudi league could pose a threat to clubs and leagues in countries like Turkey or Greece. However, national leagues from our Central European region aren’t likely to be affected and should be able to carry out their transfer plans without interference.